Even though we sometimes think otherwise, increasing complexity and volatility is not something discovered recently. The term VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) has been created in the 1980s, in the early 2000s programmers were fighting with the ‘complexity beast’ (I do not think they have won that battle yet), and in recent years the term BANI (brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible) took over.
At the beginning of the 21 st century, Nassim Taleb came up with the concept of a black swan – a highly improbable, extreme impact event. How many such black swans can we encounter in our life? From 9.11. terrorist attack, through volcanos, to epidemic and war close to the centre of Europe…How come could volcanic eruption in Island impact my business (I could not fly for more than a week when remote work was not a hype yet)?
How come can one ship impact global supply chains (it probably can’t, unless it is stuck in the Suez Canal for 6 days) ? Our life has become more global and more connected, and the rollercoaster speeds up!
We tend to perceive this situation as a threat, but it is also a chance. If we look at the entire VC / early stage investment environment… all this ‘unicorn hunting’ is often nothing else but black swan hunting…
Despite, or maybe just because technology is one of the key VUCA/BANI drivers, we also perceive it asa mitigation. Can AI be the solution humankind is looking for? Is it our ally or opponent? Will it defeat VUCA beast, or do we need to do it ourselves? Let’s see if we can find some answers…